{
  "schema": 2,
  "date": "2026-10-06",
  "experiment_code_commit": "cd1040556093c032e768548510d3daecba3e2bd3",
  "task": "known-drug response prediction for held-out cell lines; not clinical efficacy",
  "drug_count": 6,
  "cell_count": 55,
  "runs": [
    {
      "seed": 20261004,
      "counts": {
        "train": {
          "rows": 222,
          "cells": 37
        },
        "calibration": {
          "rows": 54,
          "cells": 9
        },
        "test": {
          "rows": 54,
          "cells": 9
        }
      },
      "metrics": {
        "drug_mean": {
          "MAE_pGI50": 0.6535505505505506,
          "RMSE_pGI50": 0.8291390013040536,
          "MAE_cluster_bootstrap_95pct": [
            0.4840000000000001,
            0.8062962962962963
          ]
        },
        "drug_plus_tissue": {
          "MAE_pGI50": 0.6377343828366846,
          "RMSE_pGI50": 0.8247395434227658,
          "MAE_cluster_bootstrap_95pct": [
            0.4411396218352739,
            0.8160385961408978
          ]
        },
        "interval": {
          "nominal_coverage": 0.8,
          "radius_pGI50": 1.0711180963572264,
          "test_row_coverage": 0.8333333333333334,
          "test_cell_simultaneous_coverage": 0.5555555555555556
        }
      },
      "elapsed_seconds": 0.05468149995431304,
      "run_utc": "2026-10-05T05:29:01Z",
      "code_sha256": "7653085f05be00ba2b24cd9cbe64fa1645d194a1074b0115e39362dd13456354"
    },
    {
      "seed": 20261005,
      "counts": {
        "train": {
          "rows": 222,
          "cells": 37
        },
        "calibration": {
          "rows": 54,
          "cells": 9
        },
        "test": {
          "rows": 54,
          "cells": 9
        }
      },
      "metrics": {
        "drug_mean": {
          "MAE_pGI50": 0.6519904904904904,
          "RMSE_pGI50": 0.8662369038879845,
          "MAE_cluster_bootstrap_95pct": [
            0.4352352352352351,
            0.8139844844844845
          ]
        },
        "drug_plus_tissue": {
          "MAE_pGI50": 0.7146387202187073,
          "RMSE_pGI50": 0.9060746002105078,
          "MAE_cluster_bootstrap_95pct": [
            0.503963329761987,
            0.8918206226454307
          ]
        },
        "interval": {
          "nominal_coverage": 0.8,
          "radius_pGI50": 1.178615158636898,
          "test_row_coverage": 0.8148148148148148,
          "test_cell_simultaneous_coverage": 0.4444444444444444
        }
      },
      "elapsed_seconds": 0.040193541906774044,
      "run_utc": "2026-10-05T05:29:01Z",
      "code_sha256": "7653085f05be00ba2b24cd9cbe64fa1645d194a1074b0115e39362dd13456354"
    },
    {
      "seed": 20261006,
      "counts": {
        "train": {
          "rows": 222,
          "cells": 37
        },
        "calibration": {
          "rows": 54,
          "cells": 9
        },
        "test": {
          "rows": 54,
          "cells": 9
        }
      },
      "metrics": {
        "drug_mean": {
          "MAE_pGI50": 0.7076571571571572,
          "RMSE_pGI50": 0.8902159901035608,
          "MAE_cluster_bootstrap_95pct": [
            0.5692157157157157,
            0.8412532532532532
          ]
        },
        "drug_plus_tissue": {
          "MAE_pGI50": 0.6941994658632126,
          "RMSE_pGI50": 0.8770206870690269,
          "MAE_cluster_bootstrap_95pct": [
            0.5398906439047741,
            0.8444779373654052
          ]
        },
        "interval": {
          "nominal_coverage": 0.8,
          "radius_pGI50": 1.2142641891891888,
          "test_row_coverage": 0.8518518518518519,
          "test_cell_simultaneous_coverage": 0.4444444444444444
        }
      },
      "elapsed_seconds": 0.05858774995431304,
      "run_utc": "2026-10-06T03:56:37Z",
      "code_sha256": "7653085f05be00ba2b24cd9cbe64fa1645d194a1074b0115e39362dd13456354"
    },
    {
      "seed": 20261007,
      "counts": {
        "train": {
          "rows": 222,
          "cells": 37
        },
        "calibration": {
          "rows": 54,
          "cells": 9
        },
        "test": {
          "rows": 54,
          "cells": 9
        }
      },
      "metrics": {
        "drug_mean": {
          "MAE_pGI50": 0.5562372372372373,
          "RMSE_pGI50": 0.7017125687564477,
          "MAE_cluster_bootstrap_95pct": [
            0.4734664664664665,
            0.6195390390390391
          ]
        },
        "drug_plus_tissue": {
          "MAE_pGI50": 0.5182387440916854,
          "RMSE_pGI50": 0.6705639331523652,
          "MAE_cluster_bootstrap_95pct": [
            0.4171447662496257,
            0.6629814171297547
          ]
        },
        "interval": {
          "nominal_coverage": 0.8,
          "radius_pGI50": 1.2588521462639113,
          "test_row_coverage": 0.9259259259259259,
          "test_cell_simultaneous_coverage": 0.5555555555555556
        }
      },
      "elapsed_seconds": 0.0525757921859622,
      "run_utc": "2026-10-06T03:56:37Z",
      "code_sha256": "7653085f05be00ba2b24cd9cbe64fa1645d194a1074b0115e39362dd13456354"
    },
    {
      "seed": 20261008,
      "counts": {
        "train": {
          "rows": 222,
          "cells": 37
        },
        "calibration": {
          "rows": 54,
          "cells": 9
        },
        "test": {
          "rows": 54,
          "cells": 9
        }
      },
      "metrics": {
        "drug_mean": {
          "MAE_pGI50": 0.5242467467467468,
          "RMSE_pGI50": 0.6861595273042734,
          "MAE_cluster_bootstrap_95pct": [
            0.44164364364364367,
            0.6282482482482482
          ]
        },
        "drug_plus_tissue": {
          "MAE_pGI50": 0.5503364168632712,
          "RMSE_pGI50": 0.7025142989932143,
          "MAE_cluster_bootstrap_95pct": [
            0.4524624189406798,
            0.6322356381026458
          ]
        },
        "interval": {
          "nominal_coverage": 0.8,
          "radius_pGI50": 1.7766856639247948,
          "test_row_coverage": 0.9814814814814815,
          "test_cell_simultaneous_coverage": 0.8888888888888888
        }
      },
      "elapsed_seconds": 0.042909333016723394,
      "run_utc": "2026-10-06T03:56:37Z",
      "code_sha256": "7653085f05be00ba2b24cd9cbe64fa1645d194a1074b0115e39362dd13456354"
    }
  ],
  "sources": {
    "123127": {
      "url": "https://dtp.cancer.gov/dtpstandard/servlet/SubSets?subsettype=COMPOUND&searchtype=NSC&searchlist=123127&subsetlist=GI50&outputformat=xml",
      "sha256": "7547424f5a0881446526bde03a203ccb3181bf724775199a89dbf51864c94346",
      "bytes": 168460,
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-04T13:37:36Z"
    },
    "119875": {
      "url": "https://dtp.cancer.gov/dtpstandard/servlet/SubSets?subsettype=COMPOUND&searchtype=NSC&searchlist=119875&subsetlist=GI50&outputformat=xml",
      "sha256": "0e11ba7f10d90bccc8e084344ae68815fbeb982d1d93cff2f523b3139e64b1f3",
      "bytes": 266890,
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-04T13:37:46Z"
    },
    "125973": {
      "url": "https://dtp.cancer.gov/dtpstandard/servlet/SubSets?subsettype=COMPOUND&searchtype=NSC&searchlist=125973&subsetlist=GI50&outputformat=xml",
      "sha256": "023ddaa733311d528f0f4146011926cc506a5074979ec24fcc56a2b2964e14e6",
      "bytes": 225628,
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-04T13:37:54Z"
    },
    "19893": {
      "url": "https://dtp.cancer.gov/dtpstandard/servlet/SubSets?subsettype=COMPOUND&searchtype=NSC&searchlist=19893&subsetlist=GI50&outputformat=xml",
      "sha256": "69b6fe5cf3ff7d277113a869ae9ef884a1bfc3a807b81d1db0076d5c479bac7c",
      "bytes": 120429,
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-04T13:38:01Z"
    },
    "740": {
      "url": "https://dtp.cancer.gov/dtpstandard/servlet/SubSets?subsettype=COMPOUND&searchtype=NSC&searchlist=740&subsetlist=GI50&outputformat=xml",
      "sha256": "a10397172de898a8a806f00615ac0735191e8a97b91189048af86ee2303dbe22",
      "bytes": 176729,
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-04T13:38:09Z"
    },
    "141540": {
      "url": "https://dtp.cancer.gov/dtpstandard/servlet/SubSets?subsettype=COMPOUND&searchtype=NSC&searchlist=141540&subsetlist=GI50&outputformat=xml",
      "sha256": "47f1d55518295983674dad5d19480bb5678ec59a88ba9b0b82512ac9b566f9ec",
      "bytes": 199157,
      "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-04T13:38:16Z"
    }
  },
  "conditions": {
    "123127": {
      "high_conc_log10_M": "-4.6",
      "NumExp": 2273,
      "rows": 80,
      "selection": "largest NumExp summary; exclude cell names containing /"
    },
    "119875": {
      "high_conc_log10_M": "-3.3",
      "NumExp": 114,
      "rows": 100,
      "selection": "largest NumExp summary; exclude cell names containing /"
    },
    "125973": {
      "high_conc_log10_M": "-4.6",
      "NumExp": 31,
      "rows": 72,
      "selection": "largest NumExp summary; exclude cell names containing /"
    },
    "19893": {
      "high_conc_log10_M": "-2.6",
      "NumExp": 1806,
      "rows": 79,
      "selection": "largest NumExp summary; exclude cell names containing /"
    },
    "740": {
      "high_conc_log10_M": "-3.6",
      "NumExp": 124,
      "rows": 109,
      "selection": "largest NumExp summary; exclude cell names containing /"
    },
    "141540": {
      "high_conc_log10_M": "-3.0",
      "NumExp": 36,
      "rows": 73,
      "selection": "largest NumExp summary; exclude cell names containing /"
    }
  },
  "excluded_tissues": {
    "Prostate": 2
  },
  "interpretation": "3 of 5 fixed splits have lower model MAE, 2 higher. Splits reuse the same dataset and are not independent validation datasets; no stable advantage or clinical efficacy demonstrated.",
  "data_policy": "Only aggregate metrics and provenance; raw data and per-cell results excluded.",
  "plan": {
    "registered_utc": "2026-10-06T03:56:37Z",
    "seeds": [
      20261006,
      20261007,
      20261008
    ],
    "max_new_runs": 3,
    "hypothesis": "Check split sensitivity without changing model or choosing favorable splits",
    "model_changes": false,
    "data_downloads": false,
    "seconds_cap_per_run": 60,
    "threads": 1
  },
  "delta_model_minus_baseline": [
    -0.01581616771386596,
    0.06264822972821693,
    -0.013457691293944585,
    -0.037998493145551926,
    0.02608967011652441
  ],
  "additional_compute_seconds": 0.15407287515699863
}